Understanding the global risk landscape
The report sets out the strategic context using a PESTLE framework. It examines how political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental (PESTLE) trends are combining to create a more complex and less predictable operating environment. This includes the impact of shifting geopolitical alliances, economic headwinds, social polarisation, rapid advances in technology, evolving regulation and the growing effects of climate and environmental stress. The analysis highlights how these drivers interact, and how they can translate into security, operational and reputational risk for organisations.
Key risks shaping organisations
Building on this, the estimate explores a range of corporate security risks that are likely to shape the year ahead. It looks at the continued targeting of critical national infrastructure and other essential services, and the ways in which state and non-state actors may seek to exploit vulnerabilities in physical and digital systems. The report considers the security implications of environmental, social and governance (ESG) related activism, including protests, direct action and campaigns that can affect facilities, events and brand. It also assesses the importance of insider risk, including how economic pressure, AI linked restructuring and social grievances may increase the likelihood of malicious or negligent insider activity.
Technology runs through the analysis as both an enabler and a source of risk. The estimate reviews the security impact of generative AI, automation and data-driven decision making, including their potential use by threat actors. It discusses the misuse of drones, the concentration of dependency on cloud and managed service providers, and the ways in which social media and online platforms can accelerate disinformation, exposure of personal data and targeted harassment. The report highlights the need for organisations to understand their digital footprint and to integrate cyber, physical and information security.
Looking ahead and preparing for disruption
A series of regional outlooks covers the Americas, Europe and AMEA. These sections highlight key political, social and security trends in each region, such as elections, protest movements, extremism, terrorism, organised crime, migration and post-conflict dynamics. The aim is not to predict specific events, but to provide a structured view of where pressure points may emerge, and how these may affect people, assets, supply chains and operations.
The estimate also includes a set of wild card scenarios. These are low probability but high impact developments that could significantly alter the risk landscape, for example sudden geopolitical shocks, technological failures or unexpected social movements. Alongside this, a calendar of key dates and potential flashpoints for 2026 supports horizon scanning and advance planning for major events, anniversaries and political milestones.
Throughout, the Annual Intelligence Estimate 2026 is designed to be practical. It encourages organisations to link strategic intelligence with their own risk registers, business continuity plans and security programmes. The report supports a shift from reactive responses to more proactive, intelligence-led risk management, helping organisations protect people, assets and reputation while supporting resilient growth.
